Sunday, July 26, 2009

The Exodus Is Upon Us As The First Sign Of The Apocalypse

For the illiterates amongst you (you have to appreciate the irony of me addressing illiterates on a blog, really...), an exodus means a departure or emigration, usually of a large number of people. It's named after the biblical exodus.

The book tells how Moses leads the Hebrews out of Egypt and through the wilderness to the Mountain of God Sinai. Thus, an exodus is the emigration of a large amount of people.In the glorious Altobelli Game World, I have noticed the first exodus of players. With the pre-sale taxes on most players being reduced to about 35% to 30%, people have started to put some of their better players in auctions lasting for 7 days. Odd you say? No, strategic planning...

You see, in 7 days time the pre-sale taxes will have vanished completely, which means these guys get the full profits over the players they sell. It has to be said, most of the guys on auction are actually quite good, so it's a strategy that could have well paid off.

Did you note I used "could have paid off" instead of "will pay off"? Good... I'm pretty sure it won't really pay off and cause a massive inflation of wages and player values, as too many managers are using this strategy right about now.

The managers who were late into the Game World now see a chance to get good players or at least better ones than they currently have. The pre-sale taxes have pretty much stopped insane bids upto now, so most managers have a nice wad of cash saved up. This money is now used to make insane bids in the auctions.

For instance... Let's have a look at Jozsef Kanta. In real life, the lad plays for MTK Budapest and has won two caps. This means he's a decent but not spectacular player in FM Live. With an acquisition fee of 70,000 quid, he's not exactly cheap, but he's not a world class star either.

His manager managed to get the most out of him by fielding him as the main forward midfielder in a 4-6-0 formation. Jozsef bagged 171 goals in 169 appearances and has drawn some attention with this. As soon as he was placed in an auction, bids started pouring him, driving the value upto 450k. That's more than 6 times his market value...

This form of hyperinflation is happening all over the Game World in dozens of auctions. With most managers being smart enough to wait until pre-sale taxes vanished, this will mean a few guys will have a lot of cash to spend come the first series of wage auctions.

Now what do you think will happen? These guys have a lot of money, so they can pretty much afford high wages for the players they really want. The other managers will try to compete ofcourse. Nobody is going to back down to see their best players taken away. This means they will up their own bids for players to match what they think the rich managers are bidding.

This is where things start to become really critical. The concept of a normal auction is that you pay +1 on the second highest bid of a player. Wage auctions don't quite work that way... In a end-of-contract wage auction, what you bid is what you pay, even if the second highest bid was 10k lower than yours (Note: this doesn't apply when you actually OWN said player...).

I can pretty safely predict that the wages will explode even further, leading to even more inflation. Your money becomes worthless. The few remaining players on normal wages will be highly sought after because now everyone will try to slash their wages, thus leading not helping the situation... It may very well be the beginning of the end for the transfer market as we have known it upto now.

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